Retirement

Retirement Healthcare Cost Planning: How to Model Medical Expenses

Plan for healthcare costs in retirement — understand Medicare gaps, long-term care, and how to model medical inflation in your retirement budget.

Published: March 1, 2026

Retirement Healthcare Cost Planning: How to Model Medical Expenses

How Much Does Healthcare Cost in Retirement?

Fidelity estimates a 65-year-old couple retiring in 2024 needs approximately $315,000 for healthcare expenses throughout retirement.

This figure covers Medicare premiums, co-pays, deductibles, and prescription drugs — but excludes long-term care.

Breaking it down: Medicare Part B premiums (~$175/month in 2024), Part D drug coverage (~$55/month), Medigap supplemental insurance (~$150–300/month), plus out-of-pocket costs.

Healthcare inflation runs 5–7% annually — roughly double general inflation — making it the fastest-growing expense in most retirement budgets.

What Does Medicare Cover and What Are the Gaps?

Medicare covers hospital stays (Part A), doctor visits (Part B), and prescriptions (Part D), but has significant gaps in dental, vision, hearing, and long-term care.

Part A: Hospital insurance — most people pay no premium but face deductibles ($1,632 per benefit period in 2024).

Part B: Medical insurance — covers 80% of approved services after the deductible.

Part D: Prescription drug coverage — varies by plan with coverage gaps.

Not covered: routine dental, vision, hearing aids, most long-term care, and care outside the US. These gaps can cost $5,000–15,000+ annually.

Medigap (supplemental) policies fill some gaps but add $150–300/month in premiums.

How Should You Model Medical Inflation in Retirement Plans?

Use a separate, higher inflation rate (5–6%) for healthcare costs rather than applying general inflation (2–3%) to your entire budget.

The mistake most retirees make: applying one inflation rate to all expenses. Healthcare costs have grown at 5.5% annually over the past 20 years versus 2.5% for general CPI.

In your retirement model:

  1. Separate healthcare from other expenses
  2. Apply 5–6% inflation to healthcare line items
  3. Apply 2.5–3% to everything else
  4. Model healthcare as a percentage of total spending that increases over time

By age 85, healthcare often represents 30–40% of total spending, up from 15% at age 65.

How Do You Plan for Long-Term Care Costs?

The median cost of a private nursing home room exceeds $108,000/year — and 70% of people turning 65 will need some form of long-term care.

Long-term care options and median 2024 costs:

  • Home health aide: ~$75,000/year
  • Assisted living facility: ~$64,000/year
  • Private nursing home room: ~$108,000/year

Funding strategies:

  1. Self-insure: set aside $200,000–400,000 specifically for LTC
  2. Traditional LTC insurance: buy in your 50s before health issues arise
  3. Hybrid life/LTC policies: combine life insurance with LTC benefits
  4. Medicaid planning: requires spending down assets (consult an elder law attorney)

The worst strategy is ignoring it entirely — which is what most people do.

Daniel Lance
Personal Finance Writer

Daniel covers compound interest, retirement planning, and debt payoff strategies at InterestCal. His goal is to break down complex financial concepts into clear, actionable insights.

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